Macworld Keynote: a reconstruction of the Apple stock vs RIMM and PALM
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Yesterday we reloaded Macrumors 895 times within the hour to stay up to date on the announcements of Steve Jobs during the MacWorld Keynote 2007. It was a great experience, although there was no live stream we we’re very happy with our page every five seconds strategy to get up to the second information on what Steve was saying.
Steve rose in my top ten heroes with ease to the second place (after Johan Cruyff). Wow what is he good at that stuff!
Next to the five second reload strategy we opened up a real time connection with Yahoo finance to check the stock quotes of Apple, RIMM (creator of blackberry), and Palm. It was amazing to see how fast the information was incorporated in the stock prices of Apple and Rimm (Palm followed a little later).
Check out the three graphs for the different stocks. (first is Apple, second RIMM, third Palm)



The Keynote begun 15 minutes late at 12:45 pm Just before the start people were dropping Apple stock, probably because they were afraid that Steve couldn’t live up to the high expectations. RIMM investors were already having a hard time, because rumors of a blackberry killer spread throughout the internet. So the tendens of RIMM was downwards as of the opening.
12:45pm Jobs opens the Keynote stating that: “Today we’re going to make history together”
Apple jumps 2.5% immediately | RIMM falls 3 dollars in a split second (about 2.5%) to 135 dollar | PALM investors are still sleeping.
12:47 - 01:10pm Jobs introduced Apple TV. Nothing to be really exited about.
Apple stays around $88 | RIMM feww… its only TV nothing to be worried about. stays at $135 | PALM “huh, is Steve Jobs doing a Keynote?” no movement there.
01:11pm Jobs announced 3 new revolutionary products:
“The first is a Widescreen iPod with touch controls! (big applause)! The second is a revolutionary Mobile Phone (Crowd get wild!!!) The third is a Breakthrough Internet Communications device (small applause)! An iPod, a phone, and a internet communicator… An iPod, a phone, are you getting it? These are NOT 3 different devices this is ONE device and we are calling it iPhone (Standing Ovation)! Today Apple is going to reinvent the phone.”
Apple ‘no stocks for sale, it’s a buyers market’ Boom up two dollars! | RIMM with the word Mobile phone there was no more support at 135, the trend was down. Down boy down | PALM ‘oh my god JObs just blown us away, we can pack our bags’ SEEELLLLLL!
01:38pm Finally Jobs gives us the prices! $499 for 4GB and $599 for an 8GB iPhone in combination with a two year subscription with Cingular!
Apple: KABOOM this will really boost revenues! up 8.3%! | RIMM and PALM keep on sinking to the bottom (respectively minus 7.8 and minus 5.7 percent off their market cap.)
02:00pm No more news, the show is over. Investors calming down and settling the prices.
At the end of the day Apple gained over 6.1 Billion in market cap. RIMM lost 2 billion and Palm only lost 800 million of their total market cap of 1.42 billion!
So it would have been a nice strategy to go long in Apple and short in RIMM and PALM, right?
See also:
Tracking 2007 Macworld Keynote and stock price AAPL
Engadget


Sjors said,
Wrote on January 10, 2007 @ 11:20 pm
Great article! (sound like a spambot now) But It’s real fun to see the correlation, Reminds me a bit of James Surowiecki and the story of the exploding Challenger space shuttle
patrick said,
Wrote on January 11, 2007 @ 11:35 am
@sjors,
Thanks, I have some roots in trading stocks. That might explain something..
Ada said,
Wrote on January 17, 2007 @ 4:30 pm
so, did you go long in Apple and short in Palm and RIMM ??…and why didn’t you put all your money in Apple before 12.am , so you don’t have to lend an audio recording device for the weekend !!
your inspirator
Patrick said,
Wrote on January 17, 2007 @ 5:11 pm
I don’t have money to play with :( (and I was too late to trade).
You are financing my iPhone « 1000 Times 1000 said,
Wrote on July 17, 2007 @ 6:58 pm
[…] Half a year ago when Steve Jobs announced the iPhone I analyzed the stock during that keynote speech. I’ve never seen any CEO adding 6 billion dollars to his company in 1 hour! Great stuff! […]